Can AI Prevent the Next War? Inside the Rise of Peace Tech and North Star

We live in a world perched precariously between the wisdom of diplomacy and the chaos of armed conflict. From the ashes of Gaza to the icy frontlines of Ukraine, headlines tell us that peace is increasingly elusive. But what if I told you that the next game-changing tool for global peace isn't a treaty or a summit… but an AI model?

Welcome to the world of Peace Tech, where a fascinating tool called North Star—an AI-powered simulator designed not to dominate markets but to save lives—is at its helm.

Not Just Prediction—Simulation

Developed by former Harvard political scientist Arvid Bell and Nobel Prize-winning physicist Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress, North Star isn’t your average predictive model. This isn’t about charts or trend lines. It’s about creating digital replicas of world leaders—"digital twins" that don’t just model policies, but simulate personalities, emotions, and even sleep deprivation.

Yes, you read that right. North Star can model how a leader like Vladimir Putin might react to a sudden diplomatic crisis after four hours of sleep. Or how a delayed briefing to a U.S. President might cascade into miscommunication and global escalation. The stakes are no longer hypothetical—they are algorithmically mapped.

Through thousands of these simulations, each with varying variables, North Star offers actionable insights:

Who might be open to back-channel talks?

What sequence of events is most likely to lead to a ceasefire?

Which diplomatic misstep could turn a cold war hot?

Peace as Code: From Theory to Application

The magic of North Star lies not just in theory but in timely relevance. In 2022, the system simulated the consequences of a no-fly zone over Ukraine. The result? A chilling 60% probability of further escalation by Russia. That’s the kind of insight traditional diplomacy often uncovers too late.

And it doesn't stop there. With tensions rising between Israel and Iran, North Star is again being employed to run proactive peace simulations. The idea is simple yet revolutionary: instead of responding to war, we preempt it. Like weather forecasting for geopolitics.

Early adopters also include corporate risk managers, analyzing how civil unrest might affect global supply chains and investments. Peace tech, it seems, is finding relevance in both embassies and boardrooms.

The Investment Peace Dividend

The financial argument for peace is compelling. Violent conflict cost the global economy a staggering $19 trillion in 2023. Studies suggest every $1 invested in conflict prevention yields $103 in post-war recovery and economic stability. That’s a return no investor can ignore.

Enter the venture capitalists.

From Eric Schmidt’s office (former Google CEO) to major think tanks, investors are eyeing peace tech as the next climate tech. A movement with social urgency, disruptive tech, and exponential growth potential. By 2025, peace tech could be a multi-billion-dollar industry.

But Can AI Truly Understand War?

Of course, this brave new world comes with its own ethical landmines.

How ethical is it to simulate real-world leaders?

What if policymakers rely too heavily on AI forecasts?

Can algorithms truly comprehend the irrationality of war, or the soul of peace?

Critics warn that black-box algorithms could lead to flawed decisions, and private companies wielding influence over global security could undermine democratic processes. These are not just technical concerns—they’re moral ones. When AI models simulate nuclear war scenarios or predict casualties, who takes responsibility? Peace tech must evolve hand-in-hand with transparency, oversight, and most importantly, human conscience.

India’s Perspective: A Voice from a Land of Partition and Pluralism

As an Indian, I can't help but reflect on our own history—scarred by partition, shaped by diplomacy, and sustained by pluralism. What if we had a North Star in 1947? Could we have foreseen the refugee crisis, the riots, the heartbreak?

Today, as a rising global power, India’s voice in peacekeeping is growing louder. Peace tech, if adopted with wisdom, could become a powerful ally in our diplomatic arsenal—not to replace empathy, but to amplify it.

A Glimpse of Hope, Backed by Code

North Star’s creator, Arvid Bell, said something that stuck with me:

“I want to simulate what breaks the world. I don’t want to break the world.”

That one line carries the ethos of peace tech—a field that isn’t naïve about human nature, but still dares to believe that with the right tools, we can steer humanity away from the edge.

Let’s be honest. AI can’t feel the weight of a mother’s loss or the trauma of a soldier returning home. But it can crunch millions of possibilities, detect subtle escalations, and buy us time—precious time—for cooler heads to prevail.

Final Thoughts: The Peace Tech Test

The test isn’t whether AI can prevent every war. The test is whether it can prevent one. Because one avoided war means thousands of spared lives, cities left unbombed, childhoods uninterrupted.

And maybe, just maybe, that’s how peace begins—in quiet simulations, long before the missiles fly.